The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) is seeing a 70% to 80% chance for La Niña to “emerge in the coming months.”
This is “based on the latest forecasts by most climate models and experts’ judgments,” according to PAGASA administrator Vicente Malano.
La Niña, which is characterized by unusually cool ocean surface temperatures in the Central and Eastern Equatorial Pacific (CEEP), “may persist until the first quarter of 2022.”
Malano said there is a higher probability of “above-normal rainfall conditions” in many areas of the country in the next several months.
“This can be attributed to the expected stronger easterlies, enhanced northeast (NE) monsoon and tropical cyclone occurrences,” he explained.
Malano said the eastern sections of the country which normally receive more rainfall during the last quarter of the year could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas.
“With this scenario, all concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this looming La Niña,” he added.
PAGASA upgraded the La Niña Watch it issued on July 16, 2021 to a La Niña Alert.IMT
